11/8/13 Eliminator AND Sportsbook

podcasts, Sportsbook, Weekly Fantasy

In this special combined episode we go over our eliminator picks, our daily leagues, make our gambling picks for the week, and convince ourselves into taking a 5 team teaser for this week.

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Week 9

Articles, The Corner

THECORNER2

All these weeks are starting to blend together in a .500 haze. I cannot seem to get over the hump and have a huge week. Before we move on to week 9 lets take a quick look back at some of the better games. The most competitive game, also the hardest game for me, was the Dallas at Detroit game. Calvin Johnson is amazing, and I love having him on my fantasy team.  He ended the game with 14 catches for 329 yards and 1 touchdown.  He was tackled 4 times inside the 4 yard line, so you can imagine the type of game he should have had. The Cowboys continue to figure out new ways to lose games. On their last drive they were called for a holding penalty that stopped the clock and gave the Lions more time to come back and win. I blame this loss on Jason Garrett, I am not sure why yet, but I seems easy enough to do. Detroit has their bye week this week, and that win makes it a lot easier to look forward to. Another week for the 49ers, and another huge win for their offense. I know they were only playing the Jags, but still to run for over 200 yards and 4 touchdowns is huge. They controlled this game and sent a message to every team in the NFL. They are for real and look like they are back on the right track. Denver came out a little slow again this week, but instead of rolling over they came back and scored 38 unanswered points. Washington struggled with their offense in the second half, and the Broncos came out and knocked them out over and over again. The slate of games last week was not really any good, and this week we have another crap bag of games. Even though I’m not really excited by any of these games we still have a chance to make some money, so let’s look forward to week 9, and pick some winners.

Last week- 7-6

Dicks Picks- 6-7

Season 43-41-3

Home teams in Bold

Guys with big or sneaky fantasy days in red

Dick’s Picks in Blue

Cincinnati (-3) over Miami

Dicks Picks: Cincinnati -3

I’m killing these Thursday night games. I need to actually put a little money on one of these games, but as soon as I do that I will go on an 8 game losing streak. Finally the Bengals played up to their potential. The destroyed the Jets 49-9, and Andy Dalton is starting to put together a nice season. He threw for over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns, 4 to Marvin Jones, and is taking care of the ball. They are still struggling in the running game, but if they can keep up this passing attack along side with their defense they might be going places. The Dolphins did their best Cowboy impression and lost a game they had no business of losing. The Dolphins biggest problem is their offensive line. They gave up six sacks to a banged up Patriots team, and they are on track to break David Carr’s only record (most sacked QB in a season). The Bengals could get 10 sacks on Thursday, and even if they don’t they should easily cover the 3 points.

AJ Green and Gio Bernard

Carolina (-7) over Atlanta

Dicks Picks Carolina -7

This Panthers team can do one thing really well, and that’s beat up on bad teams. I thought this Falcons team could turn it around and show up, but last week in Arizona they basically started to wave the white flag. Carolina is starting to turn around their season, and is a possible wild-card team. If they want to make the playoffs they need to continue to beat up on these bad teams. Cam Newton has been playing some of his best football, and is starting to trust his teammates. If he can keep this up they are going to be one of those teams no one wants to play. Carolina should be able to keep up their win streak, and cover the 7 points.

Cam Newton, Mike Tolbert and Harry Douglas

Dallas (-10.5) over Minnesota

Dicks Picks Dallas -10.5

Who is going to be the quarterback for the Vikings? Is it Matt Cassel’s turn to play the worst game in Viking’s history? They have no answers at the quarterback position, but for some reason they don’t rely on their one asset. Adrian Peterson cannot get started in the backfield, and they get down so often they just go away from him. For some reason I think this is the week they go to him, and he runs for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Cowboys have given up 400 yards to 4 different quarterbacks this year, and if one of these quarterbacks throws for over 400 yards someone should be fired. All jokes aside the Cowboys need to win this game to continue their mediocrity. So far the Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread this year, and that is one of the main reasons I am choosing them to cover the 11 points. Also check this out if you want to hear what Dez was saying on the sidelines during his “tantrum”.

Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Adrian Peterson

New Orleans (-6.5) over New York Jets

Dicks Picks Saints -6.5

If it were not for the last-minute loss in that Patriot game the Saints would be 7-0, and would be the talk of the NFL. But they lost that game, and we continue to leave them out of the conversation for best team in the NFL. They seem to be firing on all cylinders offensively, and are even getting huge production from their defense. This might be one of the most complete teams in the league. The Jets and Geno Smith continue to struggle on the road. He threw 2 more interceptions against the Bengals last week, and even got benched at the end of the game. I do think he will start this game, but I don’t think that make a bit of difference. The Saints win this game and blow out the Jets.

Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Jeremy Kerley

Tennessee (-3) over St Louis

Dicks Picks Titans -3

The Rams surprised a lot of people on Monday night when it came down to the last play of the game. They ran the ball better than anyone else had against the Seahawks (200 yards). Even though Kellen Clemens threw for more yards the Wilson he still couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. Now with the uncertainty of Zac Stacey this week I smell a lot of trouble for the Rams. The Titans are coming off of their bye week and are trying to keep pace in their division.  They need this win if they want to stay in the wildcard race and should be able to get the W. The Kellen Clemens led Rams don’t scare me or the Titans, so I’ll take them to cover the 3 points.

Jake Locker and Zac Stacey (if he plays)

Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo

Dicks Picks Kansas City -3.5

This line is really weird. The Chiefs are 8-0 and the Bills are 3-5 and are starting their 4thstring quarterback. Why is this line so low? I know the Chiefs aren’t a power house team that crushes their opponents, but still only 3.5 points. I think Vegas knows something about this game, and it seems fishy. Thad Lewis was hurt last week and they don’t know if he is going to be able to play. If that is the case expect Jeff Tuel or Matt Flynn to get the start, and for the line to jump 5 points. Even with the extra points I will take the Chiefs to cover.

Jamaal Charles and Fred Jackson

San Diego (-1.5) over Washington

Dicks Picks San Deigo -1.5

It seems like every week there is a home dog team that is getting 1.5 points that ends up covering. This might fall under that category, but I just don’t like the Redskins this year….or any year to be honest. RGIII takes 2 steps forward and then one giant step back. He had his other knee injured last week, but should be able to play. San Diego is coming off their bye; I am expecting a huge game for Ryan Mathews. He has run for over 100 yards in his last 2 games, and with this putrid Washington defense on the horizon I see a lot of the same. Even though this line scares me I’ll still take the Chargers give the 1.5 point.

Ryan Mathews and Keenan Allen

Oakland (-3) over Philadelphia

Dicks Picks: Raiders! -3

Oh Eagles you had so much promise at the beginning of the year, and now you are starting Matt Barkley, and struggling to score any points. This offense was supposed to revolutionize the game, but it has yet to take off. The Eagles would benefit from a quarterback like Terrelle Pryor. Last week he ran for over 100 yards, but struggled a bit with his passing game. The Eagle’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL, so I think the Raiders should be able to run all over the Eagles and cover the 3 points.

Darren McFadden, Terrelle Pryor and LeSean McCoy

Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay

Dicks Picks Seattle -16

Tampa Bay is bad + Seattle is good at home = Seattle cover.

Marshawn Lynch

Cleveland (+3) over Baltimore

Dicks Picks BROWNS! +3

Hey Jason Campbell is not that bad. Way to go Jason!! All the Browns do is cover, and all the Ravens do is play close games. The Ravens are struggling on offense this year and it all start with Joe Flacco and his contract. They paid that man too much money, and now don’t have any money to spend on anything else. It doesn’t matter who is the quarter back for the Browns Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron are still relevant players. I think Josh Gordon might be really really good. He always seems to get open, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he got open again a couple of times and help the Browns cover the 3 points.

Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and Ray Rice And Jason Campbell!

New England (-7) over Pittsburgh

Dicks Picks Patriots -7

And the Boston winning tradition continues with another title for the city of Boston. Congrats to the Red Sox in their World Series Championship. Does anyone think that the Pats won’t win in a blow out to finish off the week for Boston? Last week the Dolphins should have been able to close out the Pats, but they hit the upright and the Patriots took over from there. Even though Tom Brady seems to be regressing this season they still seem to be able to win games they don’t deserve to. The Steelers should play another tough game, but this just doesn’t seem to be their year. Another win for Boston and the Patriots cover the 7 points.

Gronk, Steven Ridley and Heath Miller

Indianapolis (-3) over Houston

Dicks Picks Houston +3

I really wanted to take the Texans this week, but I just feel like they might be one week off. They have benched a healthy Matt Schaub and have moved on to Case Keenum. I think they made the right move for the future, but this Colts team is tough out. Case Keenum is going to have to play mistake free football, and lead the Texans on some long time-consuming drives. The Colts are without Reggie Wayne, and need to find a replacement for him immediately. Is it going to be TY Hilton or Darrius Heyward-Bey? I think both should have good games, and they should be able to cover the 3 points.

TY Hilton and Andre Johnson

Green Bay (-11) over Chicago

Dicks Picks: Green Bay -11

This Packers teams keeps getting hit with injuries, but keep rolling with them and stepping up. Chicago is getting hit with the same amount of injuries, but has not been able to keep up the biggest strength (defense). Chicago has one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Packers have one of the best offenses. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of that discrepancy and cover the large 11 point spread.

Jordy Nelson, Jarrett Boykin, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall

Here’s to hoping that we can have more winners than losers. Enjoy your semi descent week of football. Let’s hope our bets fall the right way, and we don’t get hit by the back door.

Daniel Davis

@realdanieldavis

10/23/13 Week 7 Recap

podcasts, Weekly Recap

In this episode we recap week 7, discuss fantasy implications, and look ahead to week 8.

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Week 6 Waiver Pickups

Articles, Fantasy, Waiver Pickups

Is it too early in the year to swear off fantasy football forever yet? Maybe just a bit. If you are in dire need of help sitting 1-4 or 0-5 you feel my pain. Injuries have been incredibly bad this year and it just keeps getting worse. Julio out, possibly for the season? Great! Just join Steven Jackson, Miles Austin, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Mike Vick on the bench! Be sure to save a spot for Amendola… because who knows how that’s going to go. (See how my year is going?)

So, It’s Week 6 and  if you are sitting 1-4 or 0-5 it’s basically a make or break week to have any hope of sneaking into the playoffs. If that’s you, it’s time to make big moves and swing for the fences so you’re not already playing for next year.

Nick Foles (owned in 4% of leagues)
Another year, another Michael Vick injury. The good news for the Eagles is that Nick Foles looks pretty good as well. After Vick’s injury Foles went for 16 of 25 for 197 and 2 touchdowns. Chip Kelly has stated that Vick will remain the starter unless Foles comes in and puts on an unbelievable show. Honestly, Foles is not a mobile QB and does not fit the Eagles system as well as Vick.

Pick up Foles if you have a QB producing lackluster results (Kaepernick) and would like a change for the week to see if your starter can bounce back. Don’t assume that he will win the starting job over Vick when Vick is healthy though.

Terrell Pryor (Owned in 30% of leagues)
We talked about Pryor some last week, here is a bit more of an in depth look. Also, if you happen to have a QB who is producing lackluster results and you are ready to jump ship all together you might check out Terrell Pryor as well. His stats:

19 of 29        217 yds      1 td      2 int     Rushed for 112 yds       21.88 Points
15 of 24        126 yds      0 td     0 int      Rushed for   50 yds       10.04 Points
19 of 28        281 yds      1 td                   Rushed for   36 yds       18.84 Points
week 4 out with concussion
18 of 23       221  yds      2 td     0 int      Rushed for   31 yds       19.94 Points

If you have Kaepernick or a similar situation it might not be bad to grab one of these QB’s to start either until

Keenan Allen (owned in 7% of leagues)
This is the second week Allen has been a productive member of the offense for San Diego. He was targeted 9 times and has now had 2 back to back weeks of 80 yards receiving and at least 5 catches. He also had a touchdown this week. He probably isn’t much more than a flex play in deeper leagues, but with 2 weeks of back to back production he is work a look.

Terrance Williams (owned in 19% of leagues)
Oh my God, Tony Romo! If you have a quarterback that can throw for 500 yards, even against an awful defense, pretty much any and all receivers will get production. We have seen this in Denver week after week and now with Dallas. Williams caught 4 passes for 151 yards and a TD against the Broncos. The week before he had 7 catches for 71 yards. Dallas is at home next week in a division game they need to win against a bad Redskins defense. If Miles Austin is out again this week, Williams is a must start.

Percy Harvin (owned in 32% of leagues)
Harvin has been tweeting again. Early September he tweeted:
“What’s goin 12th man just checkn in …I’m making serious progress …keep an eye on week 7…don’t hang them 11’s up…..we workn”

Week 7 is much earlier than most experts predictions that he would be back. It was widely believed that he wouldn’t be back til playoffs. But, this past week Harvin has been back in Seattle running which is a good sign of his current process. He also tweeted this week:
“12th man im back and ready….countdown begins”
and
“Lets work”

So, week 7 might not be a reality, but it does look like Harvin will be back earlier than expected. If you have a roster spot getting in early on the Harvin sweepstakes definitely would not hurt. Even tossing another waiver pickup you were hopeful in that hasn’t panned out might not be a bad move.

Justin Blackmon (owned in 62% of leagues)
How is Justin Blackmon only owned in 62% of leagues? Step it up people! The good news for Blackmon owners is that it looks like Henne will be starting for a while as Gabbert might be missing extended time with his current injury. Last week Blackmon had 5 catches for 136 yds and a TD. Expect him to be anywhere from a Flex to a low end WR2.

Harry Douglas (Owned in 6% of leagues)
Even with Roddy White’s injury, Harry Douglas has not been all that productive. Although with news coming out today that Julio Jones might be out for the season, it might be time to look again at Douglas. Here are his stats so far

Week 1     4 for 93       Standard 9.3    PPR 13.3
Week 2     4 for 43       Standard 4.3    PPR   8.3
Week 3     1 for  9        Standard 0.9    PPR   1.9
Week 4     5 for 68       Standard 6.8    PPR 11.8
Week 5     2 for  6        Standard 0.6    PPR 2.6

Pick up Douglas because of the opportunity coming his way. With Jones out, and White still hurting, Douglas will definitely be getting some targets.

Pierre Thomas (owned in 51% of leagues)
In a PPR setting Thomas is an interesting option with Ingram sidelined. Don’t read too much into this past weeks production though. Here is an interesting stat.

Pierre Thomas’ 3 best PPR fantasy games:
12/30/07     42 points
12/11/08     32 points
10/6/13       29 points

All three of these games were not only against the Bears, but were actually at Chicago! Whatever Pierre’s deal is with Chicago, don’t expect last week’s level of production to continue. Do expect 8-14 points in a PPR setting until Ingram’s return.

Defenses:

Once again, rolling with whoever is playing Jacksonville is always a good start. Denver isn’t a great defense… but Jacksonville is not a good offense.
Other good choices for the week.

Cincinnati (owned in 80% of leagues)
It isn’t likely that Cincinnati is available, but if they are, absolutely grab them. They play the Bills this week. The Bills are starting Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Need we say more?

St. Louis (owned in 72% of leagues)
As much as it pains me to say it Houston has some serious problems offensively. There might even be a different starting quarterback come Sunday. The homer in me believes we can bounce back here, but the reality probably is the struggles continue and St. Louis has a decent game.

Talked about last week and not listed: Austin Pettis, Robert Woods, Danny Woodhead, Garrett Graham.

Best of luck this week!

Peace,

Richard Reedstrom
@Ragr2

10/3/13 Fantasy Eliminator Challenge/ Daily Fantasy Teams

podcasts, Weekly Fantasy

In this episode we review our week 4 picks and draft out week 5 teams. We also discuss our picks for daily fantasy leagues for this week.

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